Election Aftermath: FX, Equities, and Volatility
In the aftermath of the recent U.S. presidential election, we have entered a crucial phase in assessing potential economic shifts driven by the results. With the markets reacting to new political landscapes, understanding and anticipating possible impacts on various financial instruments, especially the FX market, has become a priority. As investment managers, we need to prepare for both immediate and extended influences while maintaining a strategic approach that aligns with our commitment to risk-adjusted returns and market resilience.
Election Impact on the Dollar and FX Markets
Now that the U.S. presidential election is behind us, we are closely monitoring signs of how the results might reshape the economic landscape.
We receive numerous queries regarding potential impacts on the FX market. In summary, we anticipate that the strongest positive Dollar response may arise from a Trump win, which would potentially lead to more significant tariff increases and domestic tax cuts. The extent of a Dollar rally, however, will likely correlate with the magnitude of the Republicans' win.
Market Trends: Volatility, Momentum, and Large-Cap Stocks
Looking at our broader investment environment, there is reason to expect a period of heightened volatility in the coming months, although not immediately in the days following the election. A couple of market factors—such as momentum and market capitalization—continue to influence stock movements and are susceptible to election cycles. Historically, momentum tends to underperform in the two weeks leading up to elections and exhibits mixed performance afterward, independent of the election outcome. This pattern also coincides with the most challenging season for momentum trading, which spans November through January.
Furthermore, large capitalization stocks generally show a trend of underperformance both in the weeks leading up to the election and consistently in the three months following, once again regardless of the election's result. Therefore, as we approach year-end, these factors warrant close observation.
Trading Strategy: A Conservative Approach for November
In light of these considerations, I recommend that we refrain from making any pronounced post-election adjustments to our trading strategy for November. Despite the mix of potential risks and counterbalancing positives, current indicators suggest that volatility levels will likely decrease in the short term. Volatility typically spikes around major events due to increased hedging activity, but this effect tends to subside post-event as hedges are unwound, leading to compression in volatility and relatively supportive price action.
In sum, these factors should contribute to the robustness of our strategies but may cause relative underperformance should markets reach new highs, as we remain conservatively positioned in mainstream assets and maintain elevated cash allocations in client portfolios.
Conclusion
As we navigate the evolving market conditions in the wake of the U.S. election, our approach remains focused on risk management and resilience. While the immediate market response may be tempered, we acknowledge the potential for volatility to resurface in the near term. By balancing our portfolio positions and adhering to a cautious strategy, we are well-positioned to respond adaptively to shifts in the economic and political landscape. Our ongoing analysis will ensure that we are prepared to address both risks and opportunities as they arise, maintaining our clients’ interests and long-term objectives as our foremost priority.
Authors: John Couletsis and Kostas Metaxas