Investment Committee - January 2026

The Structural Shift to AI Infrastructure

The End of the "Easy" Trade

The January 2026 Investment Committee meeting opened with a retrospective on a year defined by distinct—and often painful—divergences. While major indices closed 2025 with respectable gains, the underlying mechanics of the market have shifted fundamentally.

The dominant theme of 2025 was not the "soft landing" many predicted, but rather the Steepening of the yield curve. We witnessed a paradoxical environment where central banks cut rates at the front end, yet long-term yields drifted higher. This structural disconnect has forced a re-evaluation of the classic 60/40 portfolio, as the correlation between bonds and equities becomes increasingly unstable in a high-volatility rate environment.

2026 Outlook: From "Chips" to "Physics"

As we turn our gaze to 2026, the Committee’s focus has shifted from the software of Artificial Intelligence to the physics required to sustain it. The "AI Trade" is no longer just about buying large language models; it is about the energy, hardware, and next-generation computing that power them.

Our analysis suggests that while the productivity gains from AI may not fully materialize until 2027, 2026 will be the year of massive Capital Expenditure (Capex). Consequently, we are positioning the portfolio to capture the "picks and shovels" of this cycle—from grid infrastructure and nuclear energy to the nascent potential of Quantum Computing.

A Refined Mandate: Beyond "Conservative vs. Aggressive"

To navigate this high-dispersion environment, the Committee has elected to evolve its mandate beyond the static constraints of traditional risk profiling. We believe the "old-school" nomenclature of Conservative, Balanced, and Aggressive portfolios no longer offers the nuance required for a market defined by rapid sector rotation and structural volatility.

In its place, we have formalized a "Core vs. Tactical" framework. This approach bifurcates the portfolio not by risk appetite, but by function:

• The Core (85%): This sleeve acts as our anchor for medium-to-long-term structural themes. Rather than holding passive aggregate exposure, we are actively managing duration in Fixed Income to insulate against curve volatility. Simultaneously, our core equity exposure remains concentrated on pure-play AI signals and structural innovation, moving away from broad, indiscriminate beta.

  
  

• The Tactical (15%): This sleeve is designed for agility, utilizing our proprietary quantitative signals to capture short-term dislocations and idiosyncratic opportunities.

  
  

For Q1, our tactical systems point toward specific divergences rather than broad market moves:

• Geographic Divergence: We are overweight India and Japan, favoring their structural domestic growth and governance reform stories over the slowing momentum in China and Europe.

  
  

• The Value Factor: With the curve steepening, we are adding "Dividend Leaders"—assets that offer attractive income and historically outperform when the cost of capital rises.

  
  

• Asymmetric Tech: We are taking calculated bets on the frontiers of Quantum Computing and blockchain infrastructure, viewing them as the digital commodities of the next decade.

Conclusion: The Currency Rotation

Finally, the Committee discussed a necessary pivot in currency exposure. With the US fiscal deficit remaining a concern and the Fed likely continuing its cutting cycle, we are forecasting a weakening Dollar. Accordingly, our mandate for 2026 prioritizes reduced USD exposure and a preference for "hard" and "digital" assets that can serve as a store of value in a debasement regime.

The era of easy passive beta is over; the era of active, structural positioning has begun.

Authors: Kostas Metaxas, Yiannis Sapountzis and Kostas Asimakopoulos